When sources originally claimed that Sony had added an additional 200,000 PlayStation Vita units to be shipped due to massive pre-order demands, everybody thought the Vita would dominate the portable gaming market.
Then came the PS Vita's launch weekend sales numbers, and the realization that the Vita's launch may have been overhyped. Reports that Sony did, in fact, ship 500,000 units – of which roughly 320,000 sold – began to wave in. Granted, it wasn't an unimpressive number, but definitely not anywhere close to the sell-out predictions many retailers expected.
What was startling, however, was the eerily similar launch sales numbers the Vita had to the Nintendo 3DS. Comparitively the 3DS sold 370,000 units in its first weekend. As everybody knows, the sales then tanked as NIntendo failed to get relevant software. They are just now beginning to lure in additional buyers with titles like Super Mario 3D Land and Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D.
This is why many analysts, including Michael Pachter, believe the PlayStation Vita will outshine, and eventually outsell, the Nintendo 3DS. While the Nintendo butchered their year-long head start by waiting so long to release noteworthy titles, Sony's PlayStation Vita boasts an impressive lineup of games that many expect will attract additional PS Vita buyers.
Responding via Twitter about the 3DS outselling the Vita in it's launch weekend, Pachter said, "I think the launch lineup is better, and they are at the same price, so assume that Vita is ahead of 3DS for first 3 months."
Even with the lower launch sales numbers, Pachter does believe the software, despite the 3DS software outselling the Vita almost 4 to 1, will help the PS Vita overcome its slow start and eventually overtake the 3DS in the first 3-month sales. Where it will go from there remains to be seen. It should be noted that just last week it was reported that the Nintendo 3DS was on track to surpass 4 million in sales, 2 months ahead of schedule.