news\ Oct 25, 2012 at 9:42 am

Nintendo's Wii U predictions 'disappointing and unrealistic', says Pachter


Following Nintendo's financial results report for the first of its 2013 fiscal year, which also contained estimations for the Wii U's sales performance through March 31, 2013, industry analyst Michael Pachter has thrown in his two cents regarding the matter.

Never one to shy away from a potential backlash, Pachter referred to Nintendo's goals and predictions as "disappointing" and "unrealistic". For the record, Nintendo intends to sell 5.5 million Wii U consoles by the end of the fiscal year on March 31, 2013, along with  24 million Wii U titles which figures to be over 4 games per console sold.

In a note to investors, Pachter stated:

Wii U guidance is both disappointing (for hardware) and unrealistic (for software). [The projection data] implies an attach rate of over four games per console, which we view as highly unrealistic given the steep price of both console models (which will limit the applicable gamer’s ability to purchase additional games), 23 launch-day releases (with some likely to slip), a somewhat murky launch window that boasts many big names but lasts 4.5 months, and compelling competitive devices.

In our view, Nintendo was smart to introduce the Wii U at higher price points in order to maximize initial sales from its core audience...demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units…we believe the console’s popularity will be somewhat limited beyond Nintendo’s core fan boy audience.

While I agree that Nintendo's goals may be a little lofty, one must remember that the forecasted Wii U software sales are those of packaged titles — like Nintendo Land and ZombiU which are included in the Wii U Deluxe bundles — as well as downloadable versions.

The Wii U is set to release on November 18, 2012 in the U.S. Pre-orders quickly sold out at many retailers, but it will be the console's performance post-launch that will determine if Nintendo can meet its goal.


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