The Future of Gaming
by The Bearer
 

Part Unos + Uno=Tres Unos or “A priest, a rabbi, and crazy Billy down the street, wearing a buffalo costume, walk into a bar…”

And now for my biggest prediction yet, a prediction so big, so bold, that it gets its own installment by itself and that is….drum roll….The next generation will feature a new Final Fantasy!!!  What, not so big and so bold?  Okay, try this one on for size…All three consoles will be really cool!!!  Still not impressed?  Man, what do you guys want?  All right, how about this one…One of the big three will…tune in next week for the conclusion…just kidding…One of the big three will not make it to the following generation.

The stakes in the next generation will be exponentially higher than any other generation of consoles ever.  Games are going to cost obscene amounts to produce, publishers and hardware makers alike are going to be scheming and plotting non-stop to secure the most cutting edge and innovative programmers/ideas/properties, and the margin for error is going to be microscopic.  With the increased stakes at play, each and every step that the Big 3 takes is going to be measured, planned, and scrutinized to the n’th degree.  A small misstep, real or imagined, could have disastrous consequences on the bottom line shifting not only consumer, but also publisher sentiment.  One high profile, exclusive title or developer switches or threatens a switch of allegiance could be the beginning of the end for any of the three in the next generation.  I have no doubt that these things will come to fruition to some degree or in some fashion, but they are no where near the most glaring factor that will decide the next generation.

The biggest factor in all of this is simple economics; the likelihood of another generation of gamers supporting three consoles is highly unlikely, especially in light of my prediction that all three are going to be capable of nearly identical end results.  With the focus clearly on content and the resulting mad dash to secure said content and allegiances, someone is going to be left out in the cold.  In a perfect world, the content that will decide the next generation would be evenly split across the three, but we all know that this is not a perfect world and the likelihood of this happening is non-existent.  One company will have a negligible advantage over number two, while number three is going to be left far behind.  So now you have to consider why “Joe Gamer” would shell out his hard earned money for three consoles whose performance is indiscernible from the next?  He won’t.  His first purchase is going to be the one that offers the content most important to him.  Down the road, wanting a piece of the exclusive content of number two, he might fork out the cash to purchase it as well.  But number three with far less exclusive content to offer, will not be worth the extra money to him.

So, who do I believe will be the odd-man out?  Well, let’s look at the pros and cons each of the Big 3.

Sony
 

Pros - The proverbial eight hundred pound gorilla on the scene.  Sony’s little gray box that could revolutionize gaming, breaking down every single wall and stereotype associated with gaming.  Sony brought gaming to the mainstream garnering acceptance and a cool factor never before imagined in the hobby.  Featuring a strong roster of first party titles and developers, Sony is well equipped to deal with the rigors of the next generation.  Also having dominated the competition across two generations gives the Playstation much needed brand recognition and consumer loyalty.  Possibly most important of all, Sony has the deep pockets that will be needed to succeed in the next generation.

Cons - While everyone loves a winner; people tend to turn on dynasties.  Sony’s continued dominance could conceivably hurt them in the long run.  Also of note is the fact that Sony’s first two consoles have been notoriously hard to program for.  Difficulty=Time=More Money=Higher Cost=Lower Return.  A repeat of difficult architecture could become a huge issue.

Nintendo
 

Pros - Of the three, Nintendo, hands down, features the deepest, most beloved, most recognizable stable of first party games and characters.  Also of the three, Nintendo has been at this far longer than either of its competitors.  And when one is talking games and the importance of influence with publishers, Nintendo has an ace in the hole with Shigeru Miyomoto.   This man is an absolute rock star in Japan and a man who garners great respect from his peers, so you can never discount the idea that most Japanese developers would kill to make games with him.

Cons - Despite stellar first party properties, Nintendo has limped through its second consecutive generation of dwindling third party support.  This lack of support has led to a far smaller library than its competitors.  Another factor working against Nintendo has been its reluctance to change with the times.  The cartridge format of the N64 killed it in the last generation and its reluctance to embrace the online factor has hurt it in this generation.  These factors, combined with rumors that ran amok a while back that the Big N was going to sit out the next generation, have conspired to slow any momentum they may have had with consumers and publishers as they begin to ramp up to the next generation

Microsoft
 

Pros - I got three words for you, Halo, Halo, and Halo.  No other first party title carries the weight and reverence of the house that Master Chief built.  Halo is a system seller unlike any other, capable of generating hype and excitement of epic proportion.  Since capital is going to be so important in the next generation, Microsoft has pockets as deep, or deeper than Sony.  Being the purveyor of all things Windows, one thing that publishers can count on is that architecture is going to be programmer friendly.  This could be a huge boost in the next generation.  Also of note is the way that Microsoft’s research and development people are dead serious about listening to the wants, needs, and desires of gamers.  Finally, Microsoft has been consistently gaining momentum over the last several months, firmly entrenching itself as the current number 2.

Cons - Microsoft has faced the uphill, daunting, unenviable task of trying to gain a foothold in the hearts and minds of Japanese gamers, who have proven maddeningly elusive to the Americans.  In order to survive in this industry for any length of time, it is vital that you establish a strong foothold in the land of the rising sun, which presents Microsoft with a vicious circle.  If you cannot win the hearts and minds of the Japanese consumer, you have little hope of winning over the Japanese publishers who are the lifeblood of this industry.  And if you cannot win over the Japanese publishers, you have little hope of making inroads with the Japanese consumer.  See the serious problems this poses?  Beyond this, in the next generation Microsoft will not have its 3 biggest current advantages to fall back on.  1) The days of having the most powerful console will be over.  2) While X-Box Live is hands down the best online service now, I guarantee you that the other two will match it service for service, feature for feature, in the next generation.  3) Microsoft has announced that its next generation console will not feature a hard drive.  But the biggest, most damning problem they face on the eve of the next generation is the lack of quality first party titles not named Halo.  Their first party lineup thus far has been mostly under whelming and forgettable.  Even the much-ballyhooed acquisition of former Nintendo stalwart Rare has yet to provide that much needed spark in this department.

Now, for my ultimate, super-duper prediction, which is entirely my opinion and does not reflect the views, opinions, and beliefs of this station.  The winners of the next generation of the console wars will be, in order….Sony and Nintendo.  While Microsoft has created one hell of a machine with the Xbox and I have no doubt their next machine will be a force to be reckoned with, I just think that overcoming the Japanese bias combined with their lack of outstanding/promising first party titles will ultimately be their downfall.  Losing their three biggest advantages that they currently enjoy means that they will be literally starting from scratch in the hardware business, for the second consecutive generation, against competitors already firmly entrenched in the business again.

Heading into the next generation Sony looks to continue their dominance.  Strong in house developers producing strong titles, the support of virtually every single third party developer on the planet, brand recognition, consumer loyalty, the “cool” factor associated with all things Sony and Playstation, backwards compatibility across two generations of MASSIVE, beloved libraries, and of course their deep pockets, is a combination that’s going to be incredibly hard to overcome or even dent.  For the foreseeable future, Sony’s dominance seems assured.

Coming in a closer than most will expect second is Nintendo.  Their experience and longevity in this business, their incredible lineup of first party titles and characters who read like a who’s who of gaming’s most beloved icons, as well as employing the man himself, Miyomoto, sets Nintendo up as an always dangerous competitor.  While Nintendo may not have the deep pockets of the other two or the current third party support the other two enjoy, they have a lot of reason for hope in the future because of a little thing known as the Nintendo DS.  While their handheld business will have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the next generation despite any promises about “connectivity”, the DS represents a changing philosophy within the walls of Mario’s house.  The big knock against Nintendo in the last two generations has been their absolute refusal to adapt and change with the times.  However, with one look at the DS and the excitement pouring in from third party developers for this little machine proves that Nintendo is once again ready to be an innovator in this business.  As I said in the last installment of FOG, the mantra of the day will be “Innovate or Die” and it looks as if Nintendo is ready to answer the call.

As with any predictions of future events, whether your name is Nostradamus or The Swami, you have to take it all with a grain of salt.  I could be dead on, which would be nothing more than a stroke of uncommonly good luck, or I could be missing this by a mile.  A lot of things can change between now and then, altering the outcome and landscape of the console race.  One of the Big 3 could inexplicably pull out, one could hit an incredible run of good fortune, or some as yet unknown player could burst onto the scene and take the gaming world by storm just as Sony did all those years ago.  The gaming world is a notoriously fickle place to reside.  Games that should sell loads end up in discount bins weeks after release, while heaping piles of, well, you know, sometimes dominate the sales charts for months on end.  And sometimes, deserving and outstanding consoles for no good reason at all are shunned by the buying public and die an early death.  But one thing is an almost certainty, which is my final prediction for the next generation…

The ultimate and biggest winner of the next generation of consoles will be…us, the gamer.  Never before has the future of gaming looked so bright.  We’ll be playing games on some of the most technologically advanced machines available.  We’re going to be playing games in ways we’ve never imagined.  Games are only going to continue growing in quality and gaming will only continue to grow in acceptance by the mainstream public.  Developers and hardware providers will be pulling out every conceivable stop in their pursuit of our affections and I absolutely cannot wait!

Tune in next time for the final installment of FOG, when we take a peek beyond the next generation with the Future of the Future of Gaming, or FFOG.  Virtual reality?  3-D holograms?  Neural implants?  Full body force-feedback?  What does the FFOG hold?

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