November 2, 2009

Can publishers blame it on the boogie?
By Dakota Grabowski

The video-game industry is hard to predict. The preferred genres change. The age of the average gamer is continually rising as games mature. Development studios open to grand ambitions and close to disappointment. Every day brings new questions and, often, the answers soon follow.

Currently, the publishers and developers of the popular music-based video-games are at a standstill trying to plan the future. They must judge whether or not to continue forth with the sequels and which artists need to be featured in their titles. Activision has been questioned for their inclusion of Yellowcard on their upcoming Guitar Hero: Van Halen sound track. If rumors are to be believed, Harmonix and MTV games are considering revisiting The Who for their own centric Rock Band title ala The Beatles: Rock Band.

But when closely examining figures from the past year for sales in the genre, the outlook isn’t as brilliant as it once was. According to the NPD Group, the first eight months of 2009 saw a decline of 46 percent in the US marketplace for music-based video games.

It’s not an easy task being a game designer and figuring out the future of a franchise. One decision could throw the title in the long line of forgotten video-games as gamers advance onto the next “it” series. Will Rock Band, SingStar, Guitar Hero, LIPS, and the whole lot of them be around in 10 years time? Well, here are some propositions – that, most likely, have already been researched – for the stable of franchises to stick around for the next decade.

If Sony does, in fact, create the heavily rumored SingStar Michael Jackson, then they would undoubtedly be releasing a million-selling title in no time to keep the franchise in the headlines. SingStar ABBA sold more than 1.5 million units on two platforms (PS3/PS2) and, combined, the original SingStar and SingStar Queen sold more than 1 million on the PlayStation 3.

SingStar Michael Jackson would not only catch the eyes of the fans of the series, but diehard fanatics of the “King of Pop” himself. Outside of Elvis, The Beatles, Charlie Chaplin and Mickey Mouse, Michael Jackson would arguably be the most well-known celebrity of any sorts in the world. Sony owns the exclusive rights to Michael Jackson’s tracks, so they would be smart to take advantage of his falsettos for SingStar in the near future.

If not for Michael Jackson, Sony might want to claim the rights to Garth Brooks and capitalize on America’s infatuation with country music. Garth Brooks is one of the best-selling artists worldwide (more than 100 million records shipped), so capturing the segment of the market would be huge for Sony.

Moving on, Activision is facing difficult decisions ahead of itself with the Guitar Hero franchise. While sales are still on the positive side, they have been nonetheless decreasing over time. According to the NPD, The Beatles: Rock Band outsold Guitar Hero 5 with a count of 595,000 units to 499,000 units in the U.S. for the month of September.

In a study by a Sterne Agee (a privately-held brokerage firm) analyst, Arvind Bhatia recently said, “We believe investor expectations for Guitar Hero 5 are low given the music genre of games has been under pressure all year.”

Still, the fact remains – sales of Guitar Hero games have surpassed $2 billion and Activision won’t let the admired franchise go down without swinging.

On the other side of the spectrum, MTV and Harmonix will vie to stay as competitive as ever. Viacom Chief Executive Philippe Dauman recently said in an interview with Edge-Online, “Sales have exceeded our internal projections and we’ve sold 25 per cent of our inventory in the first week.”

It’s obvious that these two are heavyweights that’ll continue to combat in the middle of the ring. It would be a wise decision for either of them to do everything in their power to gain the exclusive rights to publishing music to any of the following:

• Led Zeppelin (more than 200 million records sold)

• The Rolling Stones (more than 200 million records sold)

• The Who (more than 100 million records sold)

• U2 (more than 150 million records sold)

• Pink Floyd (more than 200 million records sold)

• Beach Boys (more than 70 million records sold)

• The Eagles (more than 120 million records sold)

Any of these bands fit the bill of superb artists that warrant their own titles. Their catalogue of music is extensive and would provide for thrills for any gamer that follows the music industry. They are all varied in terms of genre and styles, so gaining exclusivity for any of those seven bands could be the winning combination to keep the future bright and burning.

The best idea for any music-based title is to keep the “non-musical” gamers coming back for more entertainment. Keeping it original and unique is a must for any developer to hold the spotlight on their series, so it’s best to stay away from playing it safe.

Whatever the case is, the publishers can’t blame it on the boogie. Music is thoroughly enjoyed equally throughout the world and it’s up to the video-game developers to figure out how to reel them in.

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