Christmas is Over – Now What?
By Louis Bedigian

What happens when one system shortage has run its course, and another just won’t seem to end?

“I’ll wait till after Christmas,” the man announced. He was an angry man, a lonely man – a man without that special someone (or something) to fill that empty void in his heart. He, like many of you, could not acquire a new game console last Christmas.

The man assumed that January’s cold winter air would bring a gust of Wiis and a whirlwind of PS3s. “It’ll be easy after Christmas,” he reiterated, emphasizing the word after.

Fast forward to the present time, February 2007. Over two months have passed since Wii’s launch. The man has waited in lines, bugged store managers, and considered all options except the ridiculous eBay auctions (whose potentially unscrupulous actions should not be supported). Sixty-plus days and the man’s void remains.

What the man does not know is that his void could be half-full. While he inquires frequently about Nintendo Wii and its availability, he never thinks to ask about a PlayStation 3. “They’re in shorter supply,” he reminds himself. “Sony had massive manufacturing issues. Demand is enormous. People paid thousands to get one off eBay, ignoring the fact that the console they were purchasing may have been stolen.”

Not everyone got to play Resistance: Fall of Man last Christmas.

Had the man made fewer assumptions and asked more questions, he would have been able to acquire a brand-new PlayStation 3. In fact, he can probably get one right now at any Best Buy, EBgames, or GameStop location. Or Blockbuster’s GameRush stores, or Game Crazy (if you don’t mind over-priced bundles), or Toys ‘R’ Us, or one of many other stores who are no longer able to deplete their stock.

"I can't sell them," commented on EBgames manager. At Best Buy they sit out in the open, protected only by an electronic beeping device. Nobody seems to care. I saw one guy inquiring, but he ultimately decided not to get the system.

Acquiring a Wii, however, has been like a special event. Three weeks ago I inquired about the system for my cousin. “We have 45 of them,” one Best Buy employee announced. “ “We can't sell them till morning. We open at 11. Come early, at least two hours. There's going to be a line. A lot of people already know."

The Wiis were gone before noon.

The same thing happened a week later when Wal-Mart stores received their latest shipment. I’ve checked around and as of February 8, 2007, none of the aforementioned stores – who had at least one PS3 in stock – had Nintendo Wii.

This problem is not limited to one state or area. Fellow GameZone reviewer Anise Hollingshead told me that Wiis are very scarce in middle Georgia. “I have a friend in Quebec, Canada, and she still can't find one for her son,” she said. “At the time, I thought I must be nuts to wait in line for one on launch day.” She said she usually waits for the price to drop before buying a new console.

“But in retrospect,” she adds, “it was actually a pretty good deal. We only had to wait around starting at about 11:00 in the morning that day, and the people at Wal-Mart let us sit in the garden area, and even brought us donuts! They also let us sign a list and then walk around. I got to know Wal-Mart really well that day.”

Our own Mike David has faced a similar situation. He commented, “Up here in the greater Seattle area, you can find PS3s but no Wiis. The Wii is in much higher demand and retail stores can't keep them in stock for more then a couple of hours.”

The unique gameplay of hits like Rayman Raving Rabbids has helped make Wii a household name in less than a year.

Complications

Launch and post-launch games are a huge determining factor in a console’s initial and long-term success. For years, the common belief among console manufacturers was that you didn’t need a great launch – you merely needed to convince us that the post-launch gaming would rock. This was never more apparent than with the PS2 and Dreamcast launches.

Dreamcast had a great launch in the States; PS2’s was moderate. Sony came in with brand loyalty and the promise of a bright tomorrow. Sega had nothing else in the pipeline. I purchased both consoles, but for those who select only one, their preferred choice was very clear.

This generation started off in a similar fashion. The less-than-groundbreaking Xbox 360 and Nintendo DS launches did not prevent either console from becoming a huge success.

Wii’s success makes perfect sense – it’s an amazingly unique idea, had several must-have launch titles (even better than Dreamcast’s lineup), and received the interest of every Nintendo DS owner in the world.

PlayStation 3’s lack of post-Christmas success, however, is a bit troubling. Before Christmas people were willing to pay thousands to get one off eBay. Now they suddenly don’t care? Has the market really been satisfied? Or was the rush misleading – perhaps the $600 price point is too much for gamers, even Sony’s most loyal fans, to swallow?

The unfortunate thing about new consoles is that our support determines which third-parties will jump on board, and for how long. The opposite is also true, but only for a limited time. Nintendo persuaded Capcom to bring the Resident Evil series to GameCube, a console perceived to be a kiddie machine. None of the three GC-exclusive RE games reached their high sales expectations. Consequently, other third-parties were reluctant to take a chance on the ‘Cube.

 
Publishers aren’t the only ones who suffer when a great game is made
 for the wrong console. Gamers suffer too by not being able to play it.

In 2005, PlayStation 3 had several big-name exclusives in development. By early 2007 it had lost the majority of them. Grand Theft Auto IV and Resident Evil 5 were first announced for PS3 and only PS3. They are now also in development for Xbox 360.

Splinter Cell is going back to Xbox-exclusive status. Virtua Fighter 5, PS3’s first major fighting game, is headed to Xbox 360 this summer. Dragon Quest IX, a game that was presumed to come to PS3, is being released exclusively on the Nintendo DS. (This isn’t the first time Square Enix dropped a bomb. They shocked quite a few Nintendo loyalists in 1996 when they announced Final Fantasy VII, which was expected to be an N64 title, for PSone.)

With the sole exception of Metal Gear Solid 4 and the next Final Fantasy, every major third-party sequel you can think of is headed to Xbox 360 or Nintendo DS. Many are also appearing on PS3, but that hardly matters. We choose our consoles based on exclusivity. Xbox 360 may have looked weak in 2005, but the early launch gave it a much-needed sales boost. Though it’d be great if game development were simply an art form, it is very much a business. Publishers must’ve asked themselves: Why develop for PS3 – which has only just now been released and retails for $600 – when we could develop for Xbox 360, which has already sold over 10 million units worldwide?

As developers shift their resources to Xbox 360, gamers will send more money in Microsoft’s direction. It’s only natural: we want to play the latest and greatest games. Unfortunately, we don’t always get them from the most likely source.

Wii Bowling, one of many reasons to use the Wii remote wristband.

Consequences and Fear

Rumors suggest that a PS3 price point will happen this year. That sounds great from a marketing standpoint: “Low price = more buyers!” But gamers are a different breed. They didn’t suddenly rush out and buy a Saturn because Sega knocked $200 off the price in the late 90s. Who’s to say they’ll be any more eager to buy a PS3? Will a lower price point convince more developers to make exclusive games?

For the time being, PS3 is relying on Metal Gear Solid 4 to carry it through to victory. But that game will go head-to-head with Halo 3, a much bigger franchise, as well as the multi-platform GTA IV.

If this scenario looks familiar, think back to 1996 and 1997. Nintendo 64 sales began to slow just four months after launch. Its lineup of titles included Zelda and Zelda. And more hype about Zelda. What else did Nintendo have to talk about after the plumber brother’s 3D debut? Mario 64 2 was scrapped.

You’re all alone in this war, Snake. Are you up to the challenge?

Perseverance

A recent GameFAQs poll asked, “If there was only one game console left by 2017, who would make it?”

Nintendo: 51.67% (39,901 votes)

Sony: 17.4%  (13,434)

Microsoft: 15.45% (11, 929)

Some other company: 2.86% (2,211)

Anybody; it'll be a generic platform like the PC: 12.63% (9,751)

TOTAL VOTES: 77,226

Source: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2640

The results would have been drastically different had this poll been taken in 1997. In 2001 Nintendo would have been lucky if they made the top three. Now we’re seeing a bit of a reversal: Sony is the one jogging along while Nintendo flies to the finish line.

It’s interesting to note that, even with Xbox 360’s one-year advantage and multi-million sales lead, Sony still managed to beat them for second place. That’s brand loyalty at work. Chances are most of the 13,434 people who voted for Sony were some of the gamers who struggled to get a PS3 last year.

A Time of Change

It seems inevitable that, regardless of whether or not PS3 catches up, the game industry will be forever changed by recent events. Just as we were affected by the rough transition from SNES to Nintendo 64, and N64 to GameCube, PS3 has created a weird and unexpected situation.

Wii sales will slow eventually, most likely by spring. There aren’t any major Wii or PS3 releases currently planned for summer, a mistake that should be remedied immediately. Christmas is a great time to cash in, but if Wii wants to take first place, it needs to continue flying off store shelves. And if PS3 has any hope of rebounding, it’s going to need a plethora of must-have exclusives that justify whatever price point is on the box.

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