Console War(riors) 2007by: Louis Bedigian
Where they stood in 2007 and where they'll be standing in 2008. "I tried to get a Wii," said the man. "It was right there in front of me." "But," he added with a sigh, "I blinked. I shouldn't have blinked." For the 13 months since its release, Nintendo Wii has been the sellout item that every product manufacturer in the world would die to create. It took years for its creator to get to this point - years of kiddie games and delays that nearly diminished the value of the unmistakable "Seal of Quality." Finally the quality is back. Finally Nintendo has given us a 12-month run of killer releases. This has been the year we could have only dreamt about during the Nintendo 64 and GameCube era. Over at Microsoft, the Xbox 360 continues its overall (but shrinking) dominance with the lure of Halo 3, which is likely to sell well through the new year. BioShock proved to be the killer-app among third-party releases, a revelation that isn't just a key factor for Xbox but for the industry as whole. Unlike the mountain of 2007 winners and losers, BioShock was not a multi-platform release. You needed either an Xbox 360 or a powerful PC to play it, leaving Wii and PS3 owners without an option.
PlayStation 3 has picked up steam, and though its sales are often attributed to the price reduction, I see things a bit differently. PlayStation 3's buyers are not new gamers, they're the same bunch that had a PSone and PS2. Price may have played a role in the day you bought those machines, but the reason had nothing to do with money - you wanted a PlayStation console because you wanted access to its unbeatable lineup of games. Sony flexed its internal development muscle this year with both great sequels (Ratchet & Clank) and brand-new franchises (Uncharted, MotorStorm). The competition is tougher than ever. Nintendo is no longer the meager, delay-heavy combatant they were during the late 90s. Microsoft, once the newbie on the block, has a legion of fans all its own, many of which are completely sold on Halo regardless of what the other guys are offering. That, coupled with the so-called "new" gamers the Wii has attracted - and increased development costs and a high price tag - have kept PlayStation 3 from advancing as quickly as its predecessors.
Who's Number One? The answer to that question seems to change on a daily basis. The Web is constantly filled with reports of each company ruling a particular week in a particular nation, and then hands that title off to a competitor a few days later. But there have been some interesting developments nonetheless, including reports of third-party developers wanting - or at least expecting - a $200 price point for all three consoles by 2009. (Wishful thinking, no doubt.) During the year, Sony and Microsoft played a game of "Which SKU is right for you?" by releasing new, upgraded and/or reduce-priced versions of their respective consoles. The price adjustments/console modifications (like an HDMI port added to the Elite Xbox 360) are only valuable to newcomers. Those who already have the console(s) are left without these new benefits (such as a larger hard drive for the most expensive PS3 and 360 units) unless they're willing to purchase a second unit. Nintendo also made a curious announcement by promising to issue rain checks to anyone that purchased a Wii from GameStop in December. If NoA expects sales to drop in January, this is a brilliant marketing move. It guarantees that January will be a big month for the system by cashing in on additional sales right now - sales that could have been lost by the time January actually arrives. But this is not the first time a retailer handed out Wii rain checks - Toys ‘R' Us did the same in 2006. During a midnight launch at one Michigan location, the retailer sold 150 units and handed out 150 rain checks. According to store employees and a few happy gamers I spoke to, those rain checks were fulfilled just one week after the console was released. As of December 19, 2007, I could walk into any Target or Best Buy location and buy a PS3 or Xbox 360. The same cannot be said for Wii. In fact, after getting my Wii last year, the next time I saw the console was at a Game Rush (Blockbuster's in-house outlet) store 12 months later. I haven't seen one since.
I had thought about purchasing a second Wii before Mario Galaxy was released, believing that I would go insane if my system were to break before I could finish the game. I couldn't find one though. Thankfully, I was able to snatch the 120th star without any problems. The Question Mark Year Going into 2008, Nintendo and Microsoft have one question to answer: now what? Nintendo is in an unusual position in that the Wii has already received a new Zelda game, three Marios (Mario Galaxy, Mario Party and Paper Mario), a new Metroid, a new Fire Emblem, a new Battalion Wars (an Advance Wars spin-off), a new Wario, and a new Donkey Kong game that's so bad most people don't even know it exists. Going by the logic that each Nintendo console goes through one cycle of sequels (Mario Party and Zelda excluded), what original franchises are left for them to draw upon in the coming years? Smash Bros., Tetris, Pikmin, Mario Kart, Advance Wars, Wave Race, Star Fox, F-Zero, Kirby, Pilot Wings, 1080 Snowboarding, and… I know there must be others, but I'm drawing a blank. Mario Paint seems like the perfect candidate. But with most of the big players already on Wii, the next year might not be as exciting as the one we just had. Even if a second cycle of sequels were to occur, Nintendo couldn't possibly have them ready for '08. The Nintendo DS suffered a similar fate. It was unstoppable from November ‘04 to November ‘05 - there were more must-play first-party releases than anyone had the time to finish. The first-party releases have since dwindled, letting third-parties take center stage. Which will ultimately be what happens with Nintendo Wii, and though I'd love to have more first-party goodness to look forward to, I wouldn't change any part of it. You don't get years like 2007 very often. At best, we get them once every generation. In Nintendo's case, this was a first. Instead of dangling the most anticipated games over our heads and filling our stockings with nothing but delays (as they did during the late 90s), Nintendo gave us everything on their plate, capturing the hardcore market inexpensively with series favorites while using ad dollars to attract a new audience. Now I am in no way saying that Mario Galaxy was a cheap project. But Nintendo didn't have to spend millions reminding us to go buy it. We've been ready for that since May 2006. Looking ahead, the vacant first-party slots will have to be filled by stellar third-party offerings in order for Nintendo to continue its nationwide sellout. However, I do not think that Wii Fit will be the end of Nintendo's franchise introductions. More likely than not, Nintendo will create several out-of-this-world games aimed at garnering (and retaining) the non-gamer market they crave so deeply. As a hardcore gamer, I love the technology and the thought of what else can be done with the Wii Fit Balance Board. But will it satisfy the hardcore crowd as deeply as Galaxy? Not a chance. Microsoft's lineup isn't all that different. Their big players, Halo, Forza, and Project Gotham, are already available. The new guy - Gears of War - is expected to receive a sequel in the fall of ‘08. Halo Wars, one of my most anticipated titles, is also scheduled for fall. Lost Odyssey, due in February, could make up for Blue Dragon's boring quest. Alan Wake could be the greatest game in the world, but Microsoft will need to change its title to something more intriguing or pour millions into marketing it (or both) if they expect gamers to pay attention. Fable 2 and Too Human are two other hotly anticipated games, though the latter has been delayed so many times that I'm trying not to get too attached to its release. Besides those, what else is there? What Earth-shattering games do Microsoft's internal divisions have lined up?
RalliSport Challenge would be great, and I doubt I'm the only one who'd like a great game from Rare besides Viva Pinata. I know they can do it - their SNES lineup is proof. But I'm still waiting for the Microsoft acquisition to pay off (I'll bet Microsoft is too). For myself, Banjo-Threeo could be just the game. The rest of the world, however, will require something more mature, like a Perfect Dark sequel that was on par with Gears of War, or a Killer Instinct sequel that revitalized the fighting genre. Those or other major announcements could be forthcoming. Or it might be that any forthcoming announcements will be for the following year (2009), as is customary for our industry. No matter what they have planned, you can bet it won't hold the magnitude of Halo 3. It's doubtful that any game - from any publisher - will have a release that massive for quite some time. Like Nintendo, Microsoft will have to look to third-parties to fill the space Halo 3 once commanded. Ubisoft has the latest Splinter Cell lined up, and Tecmo has pledged their support with one of 2008's most promising action games, Ninja Gaiden 2. These titles may be ported to the PlayStation brand (just as their predecessors have), but you'll need a 360 to play them at launch. Additionally, Microsoft is also working hard to secure exclusive content for Xbox 360 games that are not exclusive. The long-awaited Grand Theft IV is due for PS3 and Xbox 360, but the mysterious bonus content - due after launch next year and in 2009 - won't be coming to both platforms. You'll only find these additions on Xbox Live. This may be enough to hold consumers' interest in the console, but unless Nintendo takes an unexpected fall, it's unlikely that anyone will be able to keep Wii from taking the top spot in 2008. But as Yoda reminded Obi-Wan Kenobi on a galaxy far, far away, these two game machines are not free of danger. There is another.
Fully Operational PSone was a lightweight: a speeder bike that hit the gas and beat Nintendo 64 to the finish line. PlayStation 2 was a Jedi: strong, powerful, and able to withstand almost any attack. Most gamers expected PlayStation 3 to be the ultimate warrior - a console no other could touch. But what we've found is that it's not a Jedi, but rather an apocalypse-in-the-making. Like the space station crafted by Darth Vader's loyal servants, this console is a Death Star. And when it's ready to launch an attack, no one will want to be standing in its way. The first major attack will come two years after launch. Unquestionably, 2008 will be the year of PlayStation 3. This has nothing to do with system sales or the annoying "make or break" stories circulating the Web. Next year will be the year for PS3 because it will (potentially) have more must-play exclusives than any other platform. That list includes sequels to our favorite PSone and PS2 games - Gran Turismo 5 - a beautiful first-person shooter - Killzone 2 - a brand-new action/adventure that could rival Mario - LittleBigPlanet - and a puzzle game whose mind-blowing concept has to be seen and studied very carefully to be believed: Echocrome. Sucker Punch, the makers of the beloved Sly Cooper series, is working on a new and mysterious property called Infamous. Disgaea, one of PS2's best strategy/RPG series, will return (presumably in 2008) with a PS3-exclusive sequel. The next SoulCalibur is expected to be a multi-platform release, but the same cannot be said for Tekken 6, which is only slated for PlayStation 3. Metal Gear Solid 4 is at the top of everyone's anticipation list, but we have to be realistic about its release: this game is a serious flight risk. Konami doesn't want to nail down a release date beyond mid-2008, and there are indications that a further delay could be ahead. When you finally try it, none of that will matter - the groundbreaking gameplay will make you forget about the ridiculous wait. But all anyone can do until then is wonder when that day will come. On the down side, many of these big sequels were announced a long time ago. Some were due in 2007. That makes 2008's lineup less fresh than it could have been. But that's true of all three console manufacturers.
A Tale of Two Handhelds It seems that people really do love small electronics. The Nintendo DS' sales rose when the DS Lite was released a couple years back. Sony repeated that success with their slimmer PSP, which flew off store shelves both in the States and in Japan. As in previous years, both systems change places frequently. Next year should bring another batch of good games, with Echocrome and an FFVII spin-off highlighting the PSP lineup and Ninja Gaiden and Advance Wars: Days of Ruin highlighting the Nintendo DS. The only problem is that, after the second quarter, there's no telling what's ahead - good or bad. This hopefully means that some big announcements will be made in the spring, our industry's favorite season for unveiling new games and hardware. Speaking of hardware, there are rumors of another DS remake on the horizon, with a thinner body, bigger screens (!?), and possibly a hard drive (!?!?!?!?). I'm not sure how the touch screen could be enlarged without negatively affecting the stylus controls, but the idea is intriguing. And what about Microsoft, the publisher still being coy about the rumored Xboy? I want to believe it exists but hate to get my hopes up. If it is in development, my only wish (other than a killer launch lineup) is that MS is smart enough to strike first by releasing the system in 2008. Nintendo normally operates on a five-year cycle. Assuming that doesn't change, they'll be ready with another handheld in 2009. Xbox 360's one-year jump on Wii and PS3 has been invaluable to its success. MS would be foolish to miss out on a similar opportunity for their unconfirmed handheld.
PlayStation 2: Still Viable? God of War II marked the end of big first-party releases. But that in no way means that PlayStation 2's fun is completely through. I expect (or at least hope) to see a couple of must-play releases in 2008, mainly in the form of Japanese imports brought over by publishers like Atlus and NIS America. Playing Favorites Last year I spoke about the consoles that were most important to me during 2006. Here's a quick recap: Favorite consoles (2006): Now take a look at my favorite consoles in 2007 and compare them to the consoles with the games I'm most looking forward to playing in 2008. Favorite consoles (2007): Games I'm most looking forward to playing in 2008 will appear on: The only platforms that didn't change are Xbox 360, which still holds the number two spot, and Nintendo DS, which is locked in at number five. PlayStation 3's massive jump is a testament to the massive lineup that developers - both internally (first-party) and externally (third-party) have been preparing for the coming year.
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